By: Mehmet Uğur Gürkaynak, Milling and Grain – Türkiye, Eurasia and Middle East Director
On 17 April 2025 at 18:00, Eren Günhan Ulusoy, President of IAOM Eurasia, was the guest of the ‘Business World’ programme presented by Didem Arslanoğlu and broadcasted from Bloomberg TR Ankara studio and explained in detail the current situation of the agricultural sector in Turkey, the effects of agricultural disasters and the measures to be taken. In the programme, critical issues such as the future of agriculture, food security and the effects of climate change were discussed.
Effects of Agricultural Frost on Agriculture Sector and Damage Analysis
At the beginning of the programme, the effects of the recent agricultural frost events in Turkey on the agricultural sector were discussed. Ulusoy, in his detailed evaluation on this subject, said, ‘The agricultural frost events experienced in our country this year coincided with a relatively lucky period for cereal crops. We are at a stage where our basic products such as wheat and barley are more resistant to such frost events in terms of their developmental stages.’
According to the information given by Ulusoy, considering the phenological development periods of the wheat plant, the effect of frost events experienced at the end of March and the beginning of April on yield is limited. Ulusoy said: ‘As a result of our field studies and consultations with sector stakeholders, we estimate that the expected damage rate in wheat across Turkey will not exceed 10 per cent.’
Ulusoy continued his words as follows:’ After these events, although it is not possible to give very good news after the agricultural frost natural disaster we experienced in the sector, I speak for the general agriculture, at least in terms of cereals, our situation is a little more positive. Because when we look at the development stage of cereals, the date when it encounters agricultural frost is a somewhat lucky period compared to other products. Therefore, we are talking about wheat and barley in cereal crops, because corn and paddy had not yet reached their developmental stages. We believe that the effect of this agricultural frost will remain limited.’
Pointing out that the situation in Europe is different from Turkey, Ulusoy said, ‘Grain production in Europe usually starts in earlier periods. For this reason, the impact of frost events experienced in the same period will be higher in Europe than in Turkey. As of May, we will start to see the damage reports of Europe.’
Drought Threat and Water Management Strategies
Ulusoy said about drought, ‘Unfortunately, the risk of drought is more evident than in previous years. Especially in the 2024-2025 agricultural year, irregularities in the precipitation regime and decreases in the amount of precipitation have reached remarkable dimensions.’
Making an analysis of March precipitation, Ulusoy said, ‘March precipitation across the country was 53% below seasonal norms. This situation is much more critical especially in Central Anatolia Region. The region did not receive 62 per cent of the rainfall it normally receives. This poses a serious risk for our granary.’
Stating that the rains in April provided some relief, Ulusoy said, ‘The rains recorded in the first two weeks of April provided an improvement in soil moisture. However, this does not mean that the risk of drought has completely disappeared. We will continue to closely monitor the precipitation regime in the coming period.’
Stock Management and Market Balancing Activities of the Turkish Grain Board
The programme also discussed the stock management policies of the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) and its impact on market balances. Ulusoy summarised TMO’s recent policies as follows: ‘After a good harvest period in 2024, TMO initiated a quota application on 21 June 2024 in order to manage stock levels. However, as drought risks became evident in March, it decided to terminate this practice on 19 March 2025.’
Explaining the strategy behind TMO’s decision, Ulusoy said, ‘We use our stocks to meet the needs of the domestic market and to ensure price stability. ‘ he said.
Referring to the importance of licensed warehouses in TMO’s stock management, Ulusoy said, ‘In this uncertainty, we need to be able to shift the supply from the period when production is high to the period when it is low. This provides two benefits. If we can postpone the supply in the period when the supply is high, we can maintain the level of prices in that period at the right point. Our farmers will not pay the price of receiving low prices due to high production. The storage life of cereals is long. It is 2 – 3 years under good conditions. Of course, when you cannot sell the product in products that can deteriorate quickly, the price goes down very low in the market and it is poured on the streets. In other words, a system established for this purpose in licensed warehousing is to postpone the supply and to combine this postponed supply with demand when a product deficit occurs. The licensed warehousing system in Turkey has now exceeded 12 million tonnes. Within 10 years, while we were at the level of 400 thousand tonnes in 2015, we reached 12.2 million tonnes in 2025. 5 years ago, we were at the level of 4 and a half million tonnes, so it was a very rapid investment. When you look at this sector today, in order to build a licensed warehousing sector of 12 million tonnes, a significant investment must have been made. We are talking about an investment of over 1 billion dollars. This investment is actually the insurance of our food security in the grain sector. Because when there is a surplus product, we should store it, and when there is a shortage, we should supply it to the market. Because when we talk about the high stock of the Soil Products Office at the beginning of the season, a very important part of this stock was kept in licensed warehouses. Thanks to this investment made by the private sector, the Turkish Grain Board was able to provide stock management and regulation.’
Referring to the effects of climate change on the agricultural sector and adaptation strategies, Ulusoy said, ‘The use of technology in agriculture is about what we can do while the product is still in the soil, before it is harvested. Of course, seed varieties that are resistant to climate change, as well as smart agricultural practices, providing irrigation support at the right time, providing fertiliser support, such practices are becoming widespread. But it is too early to say that, as we said in that analogy, agriculture is still an open factory. In other words, these practices are not at a point to completely balance the extreme radical effects caused by the climate.’