133.6kg/capita – Setting a global benchmark for feed production — Roger Gilbert

Roger Gilbert was invited to participate on the recent round of VIV Roadshows, speaking in Abuja, Nigeria at the beginning of January 2014 and more recently at the IPPE’s VIV Pig Production Summit USA. His topic was: ‘The role of a robust compound feed to meet the needs of a growing world population’ and based on survey results from Alltech’s feed survey showing world production in 2013 at 963 million tonnes. 

Roger Gilbert

Roger Gilbert

Looking at production statistics and population figures in isolation does not provide us with a clear view of where we have come from and where we are likely to end up in a world that is being challenged to feed itself adequately.

Static figures do not encourage us to address issues that are looming.
I’m of the view that information is knowledge, knowledge brings responsibility, and together provides us with influence and power to bring about change. If we ‘know’ we have a responsibility to ‘act’.

Nigeria represents one of the few countries on the planet that is adding substantially and significantly to its population base. In the next decade it is projected by the US Census Bureau to add 50 million people to its current 177 million population base and by 2050 challenge the USA for the third most populated country at just under 400 million people! It’s an issue that our industry, and the food industry in general – both in Nigeria and globally – will have to address.

Nigeria is just one example, an extreme one, of what is likely to happen in developing countries over the next 35 years.

However, there is good news for Africa. From the FAO, and surveying the first 12 years of the 21st century, Africa IS increasing its production of foodstuffs faster than anywhere else on the planet. The area being harvested is increasing at twice the rate of that of any other region while two regions – the Americas and Europe – show no increase in area harvested at all.

Product quality is also improving at the fastest rate in this region while yield increases are matching those being achieved in the America and Asia.

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Nigeria population growth

While world food production growth is increasing on average at 2.1 percent per year, Africa is moving ahead at 3.5 percent – and Nigeria is in amongst the countries achieve these higher-than-average increases.

Food consumption per capita based on an index of 2004-06, shows Africa achieving the fastest and most sustained growth rising from 78kg/head to 117kg/head since 1992.

As we are addressing compound feed production it is interesting to see what is happening to the consumption of meat and eggs. Total food supply has doubled in that period to 1.4 million tonnes and per capita consumption of meat up from 7.4kg/head to almost 9kg/head.

That in fact, highlights the next point I wish to make. How can ‘meat’ supply double yet per head consumption rise by less than 20%? The answer is straightforward – population increase. And that is why grams/day consumption of ‘meat’ products (in protein and fat terms) has largely stagnated in Nigeria since 1997.

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Nigeria population growth

By comparison world food supply has also shown a steady upward trend, increasing by almost 1/5th over a 20 year period.

However, in contrast to that, world per capita consumption has fallen from a high of 151kg on average to 146.5kg. No much you might think in terms of total weight, but the additional population over that period is having an impact and we are likely to see this downward trend continue.

And based on consumption per person, the supply of protein in our diets is showing a steady decline as well. On average we are consuming a gram less protein per person per day. Again not significant you might think, but highlights an ongoing tend that can only accelerate.

Fat consumption on the other hand remains relatively unchanged, at between 5.9-6g/head per day. Possibly reflecting the tremendous increase in palm production throughout Asia over recent decades.

Population pyramids

I want to show here how developing country populations are going to increase – again based on figures from the US Census Bureau. I have compared them to the country I live in – the UK – for comparison. You’ll notice that Nigeria has a wider population base compared to the UK (which given the total difference in numbers, is only natural). Also, the UK shows a ‘bulge’ in the 40-60 year olds groups due in part to the baby boomers following the Second World War. What is also evident is the increased number of people living longer in the UK than their counterparts in Nigeria.

As we move ahead through time – to 2030 – the Nigerian population base has widened by an additional 8-10 million births in the 0-4 age group (with a total of 38 million) while the shape of the pyramid remains the same; and with no more people living longer. In the UK on the other hand the population base has remained largely unchanged while even more people are living longer.

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World food supply

Finally, by 2050, the year in which it’s calculated the world will reach 9.5 billion people on the planet, and before stabalising at around 10 billion for the remainder of the century, Nigeria, while maintaining its pyramid shape, will once more see its population base expand, this time adding almost 70 million people in one-to-four year olds!  Again the UK is largely unchanged with a static population base.

These are in general the two key trends that differenciate between today’s developed countries and those ‘developing’.

Global feed production

I’m basing my comments on the latest Alltech Survey 2013 which provides output figures up until December 2013: the most comprehensive available for our industry worldwide and which we should be grateful to have.

The world currently manufacturers annually just under a billion metric tonnes of compounded or formulated animal feed. These feed statistics were collected by 600 Alltech staff from 130 countries involving 28,196 feedmills. Note: Numbers for less developed countries may be less accurate; but that will have little influence on overall dataset.

The top 10 countries in descending order of output are: China, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, India, Russia, Japan, Germany and France which account for 611 million tonnes or two-thirds of world production.

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global feed
production 2013

Poultry, which includes layers, broilers, turkeys and others, account for 444.4 million tonnes of feeds while pigs account for 242.8 million tonnes and ruminants – dairy, beef, calves and others – 195.6 million tonnes.

Key survey findings include:

  • China leading producer at 189 million tons
  • Asia leading overall region with 348 million
  • US and Brazil 2nd and 3rd largest countries
  • Africa fastest growing region; up 7%
  • Middle East has largest feed mills by annual production

Other key findings:

  • Poultry still the leading species
  • 46% of all feed is poultry feed, 61% of that is for broilers
  • 444.4 million tons fed to poultry worldwide
  • Aqua experienced fastest growth up 17% over 2012 – exceeded 40 million tons.
  • Pig feed production increased 11% (esp. China)
  • Pet food up slightly, Equine up 14%
  • Ruminant feed production declined 20%
  • Decline in both Beef and Dairy
  • Able to switch to forages when grain prices high
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Global feed production 2013

The 16 important countries in terms of feed production are ranked in the bar chart above because I want to make the point that countries producing more feed do not necessarily have more feedmills. In fact, this chart is ranked by countries on the left with the least feed mills to the most on the right. And what is really interesting is that the average production from feedmills is not too dissimilar between countries and between regions at 30,000-60,000 tonnes per year.

A developing country’s prospects

Nigeria ranks 54 out of the 133 countries surveyed, in terms of total formulated feed production at 1.9 million tonnes (this does not include home-produced feeds or feeding straights or unformulated feeds). I’d like to extrapolate some figures from the information presented and raise a question or two for you to ponder.

  1. What are the populations of other countries producing a similar amount of feed to Nigeria?
  2. How much feed is being produced by those countries with similar populations?

The reason I ask these questions is that I believe there is a correlation between the volume of compound feed produced in a country and the ability of that country to feed its population adequately.

And I have identified a ‘benchmark’ that I believe all countries need to exceed in order to claim they are providing the nutritional requirements for their populations.

As FAO and other UN organisations, including their associated NGOs, demonstrate safe and affordable food supply is not the responsibility of those with commercial interests alone to fulfill; there is a need for governments to assume responsibility in ensuring food is produced in volumes that are safe and affordable for all.

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Global feed production 2013

Here, I show Nigeria’s total population in 2014 alongside the volume in tonnes of its compound feed production (just under 2 million tonnes). I’ve compared that to other countries producing approximately two million tonnes of compound feed and show here the populations those countries feed.

If my proposal has any substance, then the people of Bosnia will be enjoying a healthy diet of livestock and fish products than their counterparts in Sweden or Czech Republic. Or they are enjoying healthier incomes from export sales.

When comparing Nigeria’s 177 million population of today with similarly populated countries we can compare their compound feed production; it is quickly evident that Nigeria is faring no better than Bangladesh and is a long way behind a country like Brazil.

For every Nigerian to enjoy the ‘world average’ supply of animal proteins based on compound feed, then the Nigerian Feed Industry has to rise to the challenge and lift production from 1.9 million tonnes to 23.6 million tonnes annually: over a 10-fold increase on what it is producing now.
Give our industry a chance

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Top ten countries

I believe that scientifically-formulated compound feeds offer the solution to this world feeding itself adequately by 2050.

We not only have to meet the future needs of humans arriving on the planet, but we also have to meet the needs of those wanting to improve their diets as they become more economically advanced. On top of that we have to address the one billion people FAO tells us are receiving less food than is required to sustain themselves. That figure has not been diminishing, but increasing in recent years.

You may not believe that growing livestock and fish for protein is the way forward however, growing and consuming cereals and crops has not proven to be the complete answer either. Livestock and fish have many advantages in the production of protein for human consumption over grains and cereals (which we cannot go into here) and we should give this industry a chance to prove itself as it offers huge utilization and conversion efficiencies yet to be fully realized.

Unless we measure where we are we cannot set meaningful ‘benchmarks’ for ourselves or our industry for the future.

Alltech’s figures are the first comprehensive figures the industry has on just how much compounded feed is being produced and used. Based on these figures and our current world population, I put it to you that each country must set an annual benchmark that sees every citizen having access to food that is based on 133.6kg/head of scientifically-formulated compound feed.

After all, that’s the world average and every country should be striving to be equal to or rise above the average in terms of supplying safe and affordable food to its people.

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Alltech’s Mycotoxin Program, 37+, wins innovation award

Alltech has earned a one-star innovation award for its Mycotoxin Management Program, 37+, from INNOV’SPACE, a distinction program that awards new product and service innovations in agriculture. These distinctions are recognized during SPACE, the second largest international agriculture tradeshow in the world, attracting more than 110,000 spectators from 110 countries to Rennes, France, in its 27th edition this September 10 -13, 2013.

Alltech was among 64 INNOV’ SPACE award winners selected this year. An expert panel representing five different categories (machinery, feed, poultry, porcine and ruminate) awarded 14 two-star and 50 one-star distinctions on September 10 at SPACE.

In March this year, Alltech launched its five-point Alltech Mycotoxin Management Program as a response to the increasing threat of molds and mycotoxins on a farmer’s livestock and profitability. Alltech’s expert global mycotoxin management team of researchers and specialized consultants developed a five-point approach to manage the menace of multiple mycotoxins. This five-point approach redefines mycotoxin control and discloses the toxicity of multiple mycotoxins and their effects on animal health and performance.  

“We are very pleased to have been awarded this innovation distinction as we have just launched the 37+ program in France in June. This program is particularly advantageous to the farmer because it can be customized for each farm to identify, manage and control multiple mycotoxins,” said Julien Martin, Alltech general manager for France. “As an INNOV’SPACE award winner, we will be better able to demonstrate the proven results of the 37+ program.”

From left to right: Christophe Tanguy, ruminate sales manager Alltech France, accepts  the Innov’Space Trophy for the 37+  Mycotoxin Management Program from Michel Morin, vice-president of the Brittany region and Guillaume Garot, delegated minister of Agriculture, during the Awards Ceremony at SPACE, the second largest international agriculture tradeshow in the world in Rennes, France.

Alltech’s Mycotoxin Management Program offers key components for farms concerned with mycotoxin contamination:

-The 37+ program analyzes for multiple mycotoxin contamination in a given feed sample.
-The program provides a risk assessment and calculates the risk equivalent quantity (risk factor multiplied by the quantity of mycotoxin) for that particular feedstuff sample.
-The Mycotoxin Hazard Analysis Program (MIKO) from Alltech is designed to help improve production systems on farm and at feed mills by performing an audit; determining the critical control points; and establishing critical limits, monitoring procedures, implementing corrective actions, checking procedures and establishing protocols for recording information.
-The mycotoxin management team provides a complete contamination report and recommendations for management and nutritional applications that can assist with mycotoxin prevention and control. 

“By not using the 37+ test kit, an inaccurate assessment of mycotoxin contamination is more likely. If the farmer has a more complete overview of the mycotoxin problem then they can manage it more effectively, the 37+ test kit allows them to do this” said Emmanuel Landeau, technical manager of monogastric animals. “In addition, the 37+ test kit is easy to use and simplifies what could be considered to be a complicated process. The Mycotoxin Management Program then takes the results of the 37+ analysis, incorporates a variety of different factors such as species and life cycle stage before providing the final report and recommendation to the farmer.”

Alltech will showcase agriculture to a global audience during the Alltech FEI World Equestrian Games™ 2014 in Normandy from August 23 to September 7, 2014 in Normandy, France.  During the Games, Alltech will host its Global 500 beef and dairy conference, bringing together experts to shape the future of beef and dairy worldwide. Alltech’s passion for agriculture is reflected through its high quality, natural and scientific innovations, like the 37+ Mycotoxin Management Program, for improving efficiency, profitability and sustainability on the farm.
More information…

– See more at: http://gfmt.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/alltechs-mycotoxin-management-program.html#sthash.0pZA3WVl.dpuf

Alltech – Worldwide search to find the next extraordinary minds in science

The International Milling Directory‘s member Alltech will gather thousands of research papers from brilliant young thinkers around the world throughout 2013 to select the next winners of the Alltech Young Scientist Awards.

Registration has opened for undergraduate and graduate students interested in submitting experimental research or scientific review papers for the 2013-2014 competition. Regional winners will receive cash prizes, and eight finalists will be invited to compete for top honours during Alltech’s 30th International Symposium in 2014. The winning graduate and undergraduate students will receive a $10,000 scholarship and a $5,000 scholarship respectively.

Scientific papers submitted may cover topics including veterinary science, animal nutrition, feed technology, sustainability, agricultural management, marketing, environmental science and economics. Papers will be judged by a panel of industry professionals. Registration and paper submission is available online and will close Dec. 31, 2013.

“For Alltech, what could be more important that rewarding young people who are driven by science?” said Dr. Pearse Lyons, president and founder of Alltech. “Every year, more and more students send us their research with hopes of standing out in a crowd of candidates representing countries from around the world. Alltech is proud to provide an avenue for future leaders in diverse fields of science to compete at the highest level.”

Regional winners for the 2012-2013 competition will be announced in March. The 2012-2013 regional finalists will travel to Lexington, Kentucky, USA to compete in the final during the 29th International Symposium, May 19-22, 2013.

“The students who are successful in this wide-reaching competition will address the world’s impending agricultural puzzles with solutions founded on science,” said Dr. Inge Russell, director of the Alltech Young Scientist Competition. “Our Young Scientists are in a class above the rest – their research sheds light on how science steers our world to a better future.”

Alltech received nearly 8,000 registrations for the international competition in 2012, with the goal of increasing registrants by 50 percent in 2013. For more information about the Alltech Young Scientist Awards, visit www.alltech.com/education/alltech-young-scientist/about.

 

Alltech

Alltech

About Alltech:

Founded in 1980 by Dr. Pearse Lyons, Alltech improves the health and performance of animals, plants and people through nutrition and scientific innovation. With more than 3,000 employees in 128 countries, the company has developed a strong regional presence in Europe, North America, Latin America, the Middle-East, Africa and Asia. For further information, visit www.alltech.com.

Aside to the above, 2013/14’s edition of the International Milling Directory is taking shape – register or update your company now at www.internationalmilling.com!

The Alltech Poultry Seminar

With high feed costs, increased government regulations and consumer demands intensifying, the future of the poultry industry is difficult to predict. This was the focus of Alltech’s 10th Poultry Solutions Seminar, held in Hannover, Germany on the 12th of November, where a number of distinguished poultry industry experts gave presentations on their cutting edge research and on the issues that they believe will be of most importance.

Antibiotic resistance is getting more and more publicity and governments are starting  to take notice. Dr. Marcel Boereboom, of the Royal Dutch Society for Veterinary Medicine, discussed the impact this is having on the Dutch industry, following a study by the Dutch Health Council. He described how the government of the Netherlands have, to date, banned certain antibiotics and implemented a targeted reduction of 50% (of 2009 levels) of the total amount of antibiotics used in food producing animals by 2013. This has had a huge impact on how poultry is produced.

Focussing on how to deal with this issue was Professor Stephen Collett from the University of Georgia. He recommended a shift in emphasis in gut health management, from working against pathogens, to working with the intestinal microbial community. This involves improving performance by accelerating the evolution and maintaining the stability of favourable intestinal microbiota. The three most important areas of an effective intestinal health management programme include: “seeding” the gut with favourable organisms, “feeding” the favourable organisms and “weeding” out the unfavourable organisms.

Professor Roselina Angel, of the University of Maryland, described to attendees at the Poultry Solutions Seminar research on how neonatal conditioning, resulting in epigenetic changes shows great promise in terms of improving phosphorus (P) utilisation. “By applying a moderate P deficiency in young chicks, the bird is conditioned to utilise P more efficiently throughout its life. The timing of the conditioning is critical and requires a clear understanding of skeletal growth, the main driver of calcium (Ca) and P requirements,” she explained.

Controlling campylobacter, a bacteria that poses no danger to poultry, but is the leading cause of human bacterial gastroenteritis, was the topic of Professor Frank Pasmans’ presentation, researched at Ghent University. When a single bird is infected, the infection spreads quickly through the flock, resulting in the majority of birds being colonised within only a few days after Campylobacter entry. He explained how, overall, the outlook is bleak if the flock has been infected but results of recent studies, using oral administration of bovine or chicken immunoglobulins of hyper-immunised animals and the use of bacteriocins to limit caecal colonisation, look promising. “We are still quite a way from commercialised products but the future does seem to be positive,” he explained.

To deal with unpredictable feed costs and an inconsistent supply, Professor David Roland of Auburn University,  recommends his “econometric approach to the feeding of layers. “Feeding correctly is challenging because nutrient requirements and dietary levels needed for optimal returns are continually changing” said Prof. Roland as he opened his talk.

He presented his calculation tool called Econometrics to attendees, demonstrating how optimal econometric feeding can improve performance, returns and help regulate feed and egg prices at the same time.

For a more detailed account of the talks at the Solutions Seminars visit www.alltech.com/blog